Chapter 13

Forecasting Gold Prices Series in Turkey by the Forecast Combination

Cagdas Hakan Aladag, Erol Eǧrioǧlu and Cem Kadilar

Abstract

Forecast combination is a method used for obtaining more accurate forecasts. Forecast combination consists of the combination of forecasts obtained from different models with various methods. There are several types of forecast combination in the forecasting literature. In this study, various fuzzy time series approaches are applied to Turkey’s daily highest gold prices series and forecasts obtained from these approaches are combined with variance covariance method (VCM), mean square forecast error method (MSFE) and artificial neural networks (ANN) approach. Results obtained from all of these methods are analyzed and the optimal forecast technique for Turkey’s daily highest gold prices series is determined.

Total Pages: 108-117 (10)

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