Chapter 1

Cost-Optimal Use of Bioenergy Under a Stringent Climate Stabilization Target

T. Takeshita

Abstract

Using a global energy model describing the bioenergy sector in detail, this chapter examines the cost-optimal use of modern bioenergy over the period 2010-2100 under a 400 ppmv CO<sub>2</sub> stabilization constraint and its potential contribution to satisfying this stringent constraint. The following three main results are obtained. First, it is cost-optimal to use modern bioenergy largely to generate heat and replace direct coal use until around 2040. As second-generation bioenergy conversion technologies and CO<sub>2</sub> capture and storage (CCS) technologies become mature in the second half of the century, it becomes cost-optimal to produce biofuels and electricity using these technologies. All biomass gasification-based conversion technologies are combined with CCS (called BECCS) from 2060. Second, introducing modern bioenergy, particularly the strategy of negative CO<sub>2</sub> emissions provided by BECCS, makes a substantial contribution to stabilizing the atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentration at 400 ppmv in 2100 and is a robust future technology option under such a stringent climate stabilization constraint. However, from around 2060, bioenergy supply potentials place a severe limit on the amount of modern bioenergy produced. Third, under the 400 ppmv CO<sub>2</sub> stabilization constraint, BECCS holds a large share of the global amount of CCS throughout the time horizon and offers great flexibility in the timing of CO<sub>2</sub> reductions, whose value is estimated to be as high as $13.3 trillion in constant 2000 US dollars. A significant portion of the CO<sub>2</sub> capture is implemented in now-developing regions, implying the importance of the effective transfer of CCS technologies to nowdeveloping regions for achieving stringent climate stabilization targets.

Total Pages: 3-38 (36)

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